Favorability stands at about a third for registered (31%) and likely voters (36%) with unfavorable ratings at 26 percent among registered voters and 30 percent among likely voters. As for the Republican challenger, about equal numbers favor as disfavor him. About a third of registered (33%) and likely voters (35%) view the senior senator favorably, with around half who have an unfavorable view of Menendez (49% registered 53% likely). Senator Menendez enters the final month before the critical midterm elections with favorability ratings that are upside down. But, as they say, the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day,” said Jenkins.
It will be harder for Hugin to do the same, given the smaller base of undecided Republicans in the state.
If Menendez is able to capture the support of undecided Democrats, plus some of the independents, he will be able to decisively pull ahead of Hugin by November. Partisan leanings are usually a strong indicator of how someone will vote. “It’s both a blessing and a curse that a good number of Democrats remain up for grabs. Forty-two percent of independent likely voters have yet to commit to any candidate. More than three times the number of Democrats (22%) than Republicans (6%) are undecided among likely voters. Sixty-one percent of independents remain on the fence.Īmong likely voters, almost a fifth (18%) are undecided. Many registered Republicans have already found their way home, as only 16 percent remain undecided, down from 35 percent in May. Today, that number has dropped to 29 percent. In May, 46 percent of registered Democrats said they were undecided. There remains a sizable number of Democrats who are undecided. This is down from the 46 percent of registered voters who were undecided in a pre-primary, hypothetical match-up when the same question was asked in May. But, as the undecided numbers show, there’s still time for either candidate to capture more support,” said Krista Jenkins, director of the poll and a professor of politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University.Īlmost a third (29%) of registered voters say they are undecided in the contest between Menendez and Hugin. “There’s no denying that this is tighter than one would expect for an incumbent senator. However, it’s important to note that once the margin of error is taken into account, the election remains anyone’s game. The most recent statewide survey of registered voters, including a subsample of likely voters in the November election, finds the senator with a fight incumbents are unaccustomed to experiencing.Īmong registered voters, Menendez is up over Hugin 37 to 32% among likely voters, the spread increases to six points (43 to 37%). Incumbent Senator Robert Menendez is locked in a statistical dead heat with his Republican challenger, pharmaceutical executive Bob Hugin, according to this morning’s Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll.